Copper consumption in the second half of 2019 is worth looking forward to
Deta：
2019-08-22
Copper consumption in the second half of 2019 is worth looking forward to
After mid August, most terminals are in the off-season for copper industry chain. Although this year's peak season is not in a "peak season", there are three areas of end consumption that still deserve market attention: the recovery of investment in power grid, marginal improvement of automobile consumption and the increase of housing completion area.
Power grid investment rebound
Although the performance of the power industry in the first half of this year is not satisfactory, the investment in power grid still showed a year-on-year decline of 19.3% in January to June. However, this year, as the key year of the 13th five year plan, the state is still actively reforming and innovating the power development task. According to SMM research, the starting rate of wire and cable enterprises in July was 91.48%, 1.78% on month, up 7.13% year-on-year; the commencement rate of fine copper rod enterprises was better than expected, basically the same as that of last month, which was also affected by the effect of replacing scrap copper by fine copper.
Recently, the state energy administration revealed that a new round of rural power grid transformation and upgrading will be completed by the end of this year, one year ahead of the original plan. Because the rural power grid is mainly low-voltage distribution network, the purchasing scale of the main components such as transformer, cable and box substation with low and low voltage level will increase greatly, and the consumption of copper pole will be boosted.
Marginal repair of automobile consumption
In 2018, domestic auto sales showed the first negative growth in 28 years, which did not improve in 2019. In recent years, the China Automobile Association expects that the domestic auto sales volume in 2019 will be about 26.68 million, which will be down 5% year-on-year. Among them, passenger cars are expected to sell about 22.24 million vehicles, which will decline 5.4% year-on-year.
Although the automobile sales volume in the whole year is still expected to grow negatively, combined with the sales in the first half of this year, the negative growth of 5% still gives the market confidence in the car market to some extent. The auto sales volume in the first half of this year was 23233000, which has fallen 12.4% year on year. If you want to complete a negative growth of 5% in the whole year, the second half of the year's auto sales need to perform better than the first half. In addition, the first half of the car is in the process of warehouse removal. After the completion of the warehouse removal, it will boost a new round of production and promote copper consumption.
Increase of completed area of house
Copper is concentrated in the second half of the real estate. The completed area is one of the important indicators to measure the copper consumption of real estate. Firstly, the real estate itself needs to lay cables, install relevant substation equipment and building decoration, such as roof panel and anti-theft door, and then the decoration of the house will also lead to the consumption of copper related electrical appliances, such as electrical switch. But this year, the total completed area of real estate continued to grow negatively year on year, which is difficult to form a support for copper consumption. As of July this year, the total value of the completed area of real estate in China reached 373million square meters, an accumulated year-on-year decline of 11.3%. However, the real estate construction area is growing continuously. It is worth expecting whether the continuous high construction of the real estate industry can be transmitted to the boost of the completed area in the second half of the year.
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